One of the critical issues the Biden administration needs to deal with is Climate Change. Sea level rise is one of the effects of climate change. The image shows tidal flooding in Norfolk, Virginia. Since the 1970s, the number of flooding events in Norfolk has tripled. Sea level in Norfolk is projected to rise another six inches in the next 9 years and this kind of flooding will be at least a monthly event. Let’s go back to the cause of sea level rise.
Greenhouse Effect. Earth receives radiation from the sun in the form of ultraviolet, visible and near-infrared radiation. Some of this is reflected back into space, some is absorbed by the atmosphere and some by the earth itself. Because the earth is much colder than the sun, it radiates at much longer wavelengths and these longer wavelengths can be absorbed by certain gases in the atmosphere heating the atmosphere and radiating the heat right back at the surface. These gases are called ‘Greenhouse Gases’.
In order to maintain the Earth at a stable temperature range, it is critical that the energy being absorbed by Earth from the sun and the energy being radiated back into space be in balance. If too much energy is radiated back into space, the Earth will cool and if too little is radiated back, the Earth will warm.
Greenhouse Gases. The Greenhouse Effect is caused by ‘greenhouse gases’ in the atmosphere. Chief among these are carbon dioxide, methane and water vapor. Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the amount of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere has increased dramatically and, as a consequence, the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased.
This has thrown off the balance between the amount of energy absorbed by the Earth and the amount radiated back into space thus warming the planet and everything on it. The average global temperature in 2020 was approximately 1.84 degrees Fahrenheit above the 1951 – 1980 average. Further, the rate of increase is growing.
Global Warming has a number of effects:
Sea Level Rise is caused both by the melting of glaciers and other water locked up as ice such as the Greenland ice cap and the Antarctic ice cap and the thermal expansion of water as the temperature of the oceans increases. Roughly 750 million tons of ice is melting every year due to global warming. The seas have been rising for some time and the rise is accelerating. Here are graphs of the recorded sea level at Lewes Delaware and Baltimore Maryland. I chose these because they have a relatively long history. The trend is unmistakable.
Many of our coastal cities and towns are already seeing increased levels of flooding and it will get worse.
More Severe Weather. The Atlantic basin had a record number of hurricanes this past year likely due to warmer water and changed wind patterns. Severe flooding events are also increasing both in the U.S. and around the world. A warmer atmosphere can hold more water and thus an increase in flooding rains. A series of sudden thunderstorms caused this flood in the Washington DC area.
Weather-related disasters have been increasing and will continue to increase as global warming continues.
Disease. Global warming has increased the spread and occurrence of vector-based diseases. Malaria, Dengue, Zika and other mosquito-borne diseases are spreading to the United States. Yellow Fever is on the horizon and various forms of encephalitis are spread more easily as there are more frost-free months for mosquitos to feed and breed. Tick-borne diseases have more than doubled in the last 13 years including lyme, spotted fevers and babesiosis.
Wildfires. Warmer and drier summers lead to an increase in wildfires as we have seen both in California and Australia in the past year.
Increased Extinction Rates. As climate changes, species will have to adapt. Some will make it and some won’t. While animals can move to cooler climates, trees cannot. And animals that are already at the highest latitudes, such as Polar Bears which depend on sea ice, will disappear.
Ocean Acidification. So far about 30% of the excess carbon dioxide generated by human activity has been absorbed by the oceans. This is a good thing for the atmosphere but a bad thing for the oceans. As carbon dioxide is absorbed by the oceans it forms a weak acid called carbonic acid. This makes the oceans slightly more acidic and the process is continuing. This is very bad news for creatures that rely on carbonate to make their shells. These creatures include some of my favorites – mussels, crabs, oysters, clams and others such as coral that are critical to the bio-diversity of the ocean.
There are many other effects but let’s go on to what we can do about it.
Accelerate the switch to renewable energy for electricity production. Roughly 30 percent of US carbon-dioxide emissions come from electricity production, mostly from natural gas and coal. As a bonus, reducing the use of natural gas will also reduce the emission of methane through leaks – a potent greenhouse gas. A carbon tax will make a big difference here.
Accelerate the switch to electric vehicles. Roughly 28% of greenhouse gas emissions in the US come from transportation – primarily from the burning of petroleum products. A carbon tax along with a buyback of older, more polluting vehicles will have a strong impact.
Reduce industrial emissions. Roughly 22% of US greenhouse gas emissions are from industrial activities, primarily burning of fossil fuels but also through leaks in production equipment. A carbon tax along with a return to stronger rules on leaks and bans on certain activities such as flaring gas will make a big difference. More and better recycling will also reduce the amount of energy required to produce many items.
Eat less meat. Cattle are responsible for some 35% of methane emissions in this country. More efficient production will help as will a reduction in consumption.
The President has proposed a large investment in renewable energy and ‘green’ jobs and these are certainly needed, but I don’t think they go far enough. A significant carbon tax is going to be required to incentivize industry to take steps and make investments that will reduce carbon dioxide generation. The tax should focus not just on direct emissions but also on downstream emissions over the lifespan of the product. The government also needs to support efforts to take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere, primarily by reforestation efforts and perhaps taking some land out of agriculture and returning it to forested land. Regulations governing petroleum and natural gas exploration and production need to be strengthened. There’s really no time to waste.
I’ll have more on this soon, but I welcome your thoughts. Our grandchildren are depending on us.
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