covid

14
Jan
2021

End the Pandemic

Vaccination Information | Ross County Health District

A few days ago I published a list of five areas that need attention from the incoming Biden administration. Number 5 on the list was ‘End the Pandemic’ but really that needs to be number one. Ending the pandemic is a critical prerequisite to getting much else done. Here’s what I think needs to be done.

  • Simplify and Accelerate the Administration of the Vaccines.

We’re fortunate in that we have two vaccines, both based on mRNA technology that are shown to be highly effective and are being produced and distributed to the states. More are on the way. Here’s a rundown.

The Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine uses an engineered virus to carry certain coronavirus genes into cells and have them make virus proteins which generate an immune response. Based on Phase 3 trials it appears to have good efficacy – between 62 and 90%. In what appears to be a paradox, trial participants who got a lower first dose appear to have a better immune response. There is some thought that the larger first dose triggers an immune response to the vaccine itself. In any case the vaccine has been approved for emergency use in a number of countries and AstraZeneca is having discussions with the FDA about US approval. In contrast to Pfizer and Moderna, AstraZeneca has indicated that it can produce up to 2 billion doses a year. The US has pre-purchased 300 million doses.

Johnson & Johnson has developed a similar vaccine which showed good results in Phase 2 trials. Results from Phase 3 trials are expected within days. Unlike the vaccines above, the J&J vaccine requires only a single dose. The US has pre-purchased 100 million doses of the J&J vaccine and, while there have been some initial production delays, the company indicates it can produce 1 billion doses in 2021.

Novavax, a Maryland company, has developed a vaccine which sticks virus proteins onto microscopic particles to be injected. Preliminary and Phase 2 results have been promising and a Phase 3 trial was launched in August in the UK with results likely early this year. Novavax expects to deliver 100 million doses to the US in 2021.

There are dozens of other vaccines in testing or production, but mostly outside the US. Russia’s ‘Sputnik’ vaccine seems to be quite effective. But looking at just the vaccines above, the US should receive 900 million doses in 2021 – more than enough to vaccinate the entire population.

The trick, of course is to get the vaccine into our arms and not sit on the shelf while more people are infected an die. Here’s what we need to do:

  1. Simplify the Priority List. Administer the vaccine to direct health care workers and then people 65 and over. Trying to set aside vaccines for nursing homes and front-line workers has proven too complicated for most localities. If we vaccinate as many as possible, those folks will get included.
  2. Provide Additional Resources to Local Health Departments. Most have been struggling and need help, particularly in getting the vaccines to poorer neighborhoods. Send it.
  3. Stop Trying to Persuade People. Some people are afraid of the vaccines. Don’t waste effort at this point trying to persuade them. There are plenty who eagerly want the vaccine. It will be easier after we see results.
  • Shut Down Indoor Restaurants and Bars

There’s plenty of evidence showing that the virus spreads efficiently in poorly ventilated indoor areas. Because of the rapid spread of the virus, we’ve close schools and taken other steps that damage the economy and our well-being. We also need to compensate the restaurants and bars we shut down by paying their employees and their expenses until we can allow them to reopen.

  • Consider Better Masks

There is strong evidence that high-filtration masks are much more efficient at reducing transmission of the virus. Consider using the Defense Production Act to produce large numbers of these masks and sending sets to every household.

So far around 20 million Americans have been infected and more than 10 million vaccinated. By mid-May we could see cumulative infections of around 25 million and about 100 million vaccinated and the transmission of the virus should slow dramatically. We just need to keep focused and take care of ourselves and others.

Posted by Tom in Politics & Government, Thoughts
21
Nov
2020

Down we go

Daily Covid-related deaths per NYT

Despite the approaching holiday season, it’s a grim time in many ways. New reported Covid-19 infections in the US reach new records daily and the number of deaths is increasing every day. About 2000 Americans died of Covid-19 yesterday (a bit more according to data collected by Johns Hopkins University, a bit less according to the New York Times). Our President shows zero interest in providing any leadership or dealing with the growing national crisis in any way.

There’s more. The pandemic is driving our country into recession and Congress, after passing the CARES act in the spring, has failed to act in any way to address the economic dislocations caused by the pandemic. Let’s look at what is coming up.

The extended unemployment benefits established by the CARES Act will expire the day after Christmas. 7.3 million Americans who receive Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (supplemental insurance for gig and self-employed workers) will see it end on December 26. Another 4.6 million will have their extended unemployment benefits expire on that day.

On December 31st, the eviction moratorium ends and those who have been unable to pay their rent are subject to being evicted. State and local funding from the CARES Act expires. Small business debt relief ends.

There’s more! Student loan forbearance ends on December 31. The refundable tax credit for paid sick leave runs out.

Remember how the President made a big deal of deferring certain payroll taxes (FICA and Medicare) for employees and employers? Well that runs out on December 31 and the deferred amounts will then have to be paid back.

Of course all of this will have an immediate negative impact on our economy not to mention the personal impact on millions of our fellow Americans. So what actions are the President and Congress taking to avert these problems?

Nothing.

To be sure, the House of Representatives has passed two separate relief bills but the Senate has refused to take up either one of them because he is afraid to allow recorded votes on either bill.

So here we sit. Happy Thanksgiving!

Posted by Tom in Politics & Government, Thoughts
16
Sep
2020

COVID 19 Stimulus and Relief

When the CARES Act passed in April, it was an historic step by our government to mitigate the effect of the COVID pandemic on our people and economy. The $2.2 billion provided by the act supported enhanced unemployment benefits, stimulus payments to individuals and families, the Payroll Protection Plan to allow businesses to keep employees on the payroll, funds for state and local governments to cover COVID-related costs and support for students and renters to suspend student loan repayments and many kinds of evictions.

While the CARES Act was successful in many ways, most of the benefits have either expired or are about to expire even though unemployment continues at very high levels, business bankruptcies are growing, economic activity remains depressed, state and local governments are suffering from increased costs and decreased revenue and the threat of further bankruptcies and more economic and health damage continues.

FILE – In this May 21, 2020 file photo, a man looks at signs of a closed store due to COVID-19 in Niles, Ill. U.S. businesses shed 2.76 million jobs in May, as the economic damage from the historically unrivaled coronavirus outbreak stretched into a third month. The payroll company ADP reported Wednesday that businesses have let go of a combined 22.6 million jobs since March.AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh, File)

In light of this, the House of Representatives passed legislation two months ago to provide additional stimulus and relief totaling almost $4 billion for individuals, families, businesses, healthcare providers, state and local governments and others. the Republican-led Senate, however, has been unable to pass any corresponding legislation and the Senate leadership and the White House oppose most of the initiatives included in the House bill. This is creating a severe hardship for many Americans which can only get worse with further layoffs and business closings in the future and evictions and homelessness in the future for many of those whose unemployment benefits have been cut or the newly unemployed.

So I was heartened to see that a bipartisan group of representatives called ‘The Problem Solvers Caucus’ had proposed a framework for a COVID 19 relief package that might help move things along. I’m cautious because this group hasn’t really had much of an impact until now but perhaps this will go somewhere.

The package being proposed represents, of course, a compromise between the administration position and the legislation passed by the House. In my view it’s far from perfect but better than nothing. Here are the basic elements:

  • $100 billion for testing and healthcare, primarily for providers
  • $316 billion in support for families and individuals including increases in WIC/SNAP, direct stimulus payments as in the CARES Act, Rental assistance for the most needy and Student Loan forbearance through December.
  • $120 billion for unemployment assistance including $450 weekly supplement for 8 weeks followed by up to $600 but not to exceed previous salary for 13 weeks.
  • $290 billion for small businesses and nonprofits including a second PPP program with a focus on small and community banks and $50 billion for employee retention tax credits
  • $145 billion for schools and childcare including $15 billion for childcare providers, $100 billion for K-12 schools and $30 billion for higher education
  • $500.3 billion for state and local governments, most of it to make up for general revenue shortfalls.

I think in some of these categories there is not enough money but, as I said before – it’s better than nothing and nothing is what we will get if the current gridlock continues. I will keep my fingers crossed.

Posted by Tom